The SPY put in an incredible headfake yesterday giving us our first close under the 50 day in over a month and following it up with a big gap up over the 8 and 21 ema after CPI this morning. Now it all comes down to what the fed does next week and rate hike odds are at highs now but it seems crazy to me that Trump’s handpicked fed chair would completely go against what Trump wants next week, so we shall see what comes of that. I personally think the fed has to hike to retain credibility, losing that would be worse than upsetting Trump but I don’t know if they have it in them to upset Donald right now. That close yesterday is the tough part of being a technical trader you would get completely stopped out if you respected things like a close below that 50 day which is why I just try to reduce leverage when I’m worried but I never go to all cash. Right now we’re still looking at a series of lower highs, that isn’t bullish, we need to see a move up to say 775 to invalidate this structure we’re in.
More concerning I’d say is the IWM as small caps usually lead momentum, it is stuck under the 100 day now and rejecting it so far today as you can see below. This has been in a downtrend since mid August. I would say today is a nice move, but these charts are still really mangled and not ready.
Scanner
Here are today’s large cap momentum scans, nothing too exciting. SWKS did see a big trade today that I will highlight below otherwise tankers,health insurance, and grocery stores.
My Open Book
Trades I Made Today
