The SPY gapped down below the 21 ema today for the first time in over a month. Nothing good happens below the 21 ema, typically if you’re focused on the short term you would sit in cash until we were back over the 21. Now our next support is that yellow line, the 50 day. Oil is up another $2 but the vix remains under 16 so things are still relatively calm. The market is going to struggle here until we can get a lid on oil and rates which keep ticking up by the day. Midterms are 2 months away and I suspect we will find a way to go into midterms at highs, but in the short term, this isn’t a good look on the overall market.
Scanner
Here are the top large cap momentum scans from the database, the rest of the small and mid cap scans can be found in the database link below.
My Open Book
I’m going to be more active in my trading now, I freed up a ton of cash after I took a loss on my big Amazon position yesterday afternoon when the FTC news came out, I’m sick of Amazon, it is the most exhausting stock. Every other day there is some bad headline followed by a false breakout and then a false breakdown. I put on alot of new positions yesterday and you’ll see them below. They’re all names following flow I’ve seen recently. I try to sell calls a little higher and make some money if I’m called away. I’m not trying to be too crazy here, I’m still very levered up to Intel, that is still the majority of my book. You can see all my new positions below, it was just time to move on from Amazon, I really did want to play the Anthropic ipo but this thing is a house of horrors.
As I go forward into next year and beyond, once this huge Intel trade is over in November, I’m going to be building more of a real book here with 20+ positions and actively trading it. This year was a special circumstance where I saw a chance to go all in on Intel in April and it worked out so I’ve been just sitting since waiting for it to hopefully reach max value in November. Those opportunities don’t come around often but going forward, you’re going to see more of me taking commons in the same direction as the option flow going forward. I don’t see the need to keep pressing things with short term calls anymore, there’s that saying that you only have to get rich once, and I think in the last 4 years here going from a little over $1m to $10m has me at the point where crazy short term risk is not warranted.
An interesting one from yesterday I bought myself was FRVO. I logged this in the database at 12:52 my time in the discord yesterday after the recap went out and you can see I bought shares 8 minutes later after reading the thesis in the database.
It was a weird block, 2000 calls on this name nobody ever buys calls on expiring in 3 weeks, it was a very small buy dollar wise. This is the sort of odd trade where you’ll see me grab shares and I bought 10,000 yesterday and added 2,000 more today but this morning they announced a huge deal with Google and the name is up 23% right now. These small under the radar trades in obscure names are the ones that interest me most because you have to really question who is playing calls in a name like this. Clearly whoever this was, had inside information a deal was getting announced today and they played with such a small number that they’ll never get in trouble for it. You lay up $5-10m on this and you’re going to jail and that’s why I have my parameters where they are to hopefully catch things like this.
Commons I Added Long: FRVO, EXE,META,NRG,WYNN,AGX,TTD,AS,EQPT
Short puts I added: TSLA
Database Link
Here is today’s link to the database, it will be up until the opening bell tomorrow.
