9/15/25 Recap

The SPY gaps up again, we’re getting a little euphoric here look at the RSI hitting max overbought for the first time in months. Obviously it all has to do with weighting and 40% of the market is 7 stocks that happen to have one a pump everyday, today we got the TSLA news with Elon adding shares on the open market. That should shock none of you considering I highlighted it back to back days, thursday and friday, because the option flow was so egregiously bullish. We have FOMC this week and while stocks do go up and to the right what seems like 90% of the time historically, if ever there was a sell the news event, even if it is small, I feel like this would be it. I’d say if you want to take some off here or buy some puts to hedge, it probably isn’t the worst move with us at all time highs. I don’t see some massive crash or anything but, what if we sold off a few percent? Hard to fathom with everything up everyday, but stocks are still allowed to go down, we haven’t made that illegal, yet.

Speaking of that TSLA gap up today, when you step back and think about what just happened, you can see how lawless the options market is. Thursday and Friday last week the TSLA bull flow went nuts. At the money put sales in March in size, puts sold 300% ITM on the 3x Tesla ETF, etc. I never highlight names 2 days in a row but I did there because it was just overwhelming. For those 2 days Tesla was the leader in the database as you can see below and I even was involved myself and I think TSLA is the most overpriced stock in history. I joked that those TSLL put sales at 60 were a tell, the stock was at 14 and its up 50% in 3 days since, that is a 3x TSLA instrument. This goes to show you how data leaks with funds and friends. So many knew something was coming, the Elon buy leaked somehow and you saw a flurry of calls over 400 when the stock was 350-360. That’s literally the purpose of what I do here to see what names see repeat flows so we can follow them. You saw it a few weeks back with BABA where that just magically jumps 20% after the flows come in hot. This isn’t rocket science, if a name sees a ton of bullish activity, something is likely coming, you need to position yourself into that name.

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