The SPY gapped up over the 21 ema but has so far rejected it and is now back ontop of the 50 day. We remain in this series of lower highs going back to early August, until we break that trend, this is still a downtrend. Why are we rallying today? Oil down, max pessimism into the rate hike, I don’t know, what I do know is you’re in a downtrend until you’re not and this is just a countertrend rally. We need a move over 775 to get us out of this. Now we’re pretty much out of catalysts until earnings season kicks off next month, we do have Trump meeting with regards to Iran next week as well and maybe we can get a deal there and flush oil lower. That would realistically be the next potential catalyst for equities or we’re going to continue to chop around in this range we’ve been in since June began. The good news here is you can see below the 1 long wick to the 100 day and we found support and got bought hard there, you can now sell puts off that 750 level and as long as we don’t break that 100 day you can hold it to expiry and close it with a tight stop on a break below. The big airline flows I highlighted the other day lead me to think some sort of deal is coming soon especially with how weak oil is the last 2 sessions. The diesel crisis seems to be coming up alot now and that would be disastrous into midterms in 6 weeks.
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