9/23 Recap. We Finally Broke Down.

I told you so?

I’m going to open this differently today. Well, my best idea for the week, JNJ, worked out perfectly, as did my only common position, Twitter, so small wins in a market that is breaking spirits. JNJ as I posted last weekend was very strong in a weak tape at that time and followed it up with a slightly green week again as markets crumbled. It closed yesterday over some key levels as well, good setup going forward with 2 weeks of strength as markets collapse.

My concept of hiding in Twitter since late August continues to work as Twitter was up slightly again vs a market that has completely crumbled. I posted this on August 26th and since then, Twitter is up 2.5% vs the QQQ being down 11%.

James Bulltard @amazonholder1

Don’t say you weren’t warned on how much $twtr outperforms “tech” in the short term

The market looks horrendous as a whole. The SPY continues back to the June lows, this chart is all sorts of broken. We’re hitting max oversold levels on the RSI but with this level of technical damage, I don’t see much hope.

On a weekly basis, the SPY still looks ok, unlike the QQQ, it had a nice bounce at the 200 DMA. I had someone message me yesterday, DMA stands for displaced moving average, not daily. So yes the 200 DMA on the weekly.

As we look at the Nasdaq, this is where things get ugly, the weekly closed below the 200 DMA, now you might say, what is the significance of this?

The significance is we haven’t done that in well over a decade, actually since the crisis in 2008. So is the bull market officially over? It’s hard to say because the SPY is hanging on by a thread, but the SPY is diversified, tech though, does indeed seem to be over. I hate using terms like that because these are all fantastic companies, but with interest rates soaring for now, their valuations are all a bit stretched.

The dollar closed the week at multi year highs which is just destroying everything in its path from stocks to emerging markets. The dollar is up over 20% this year, look at the currencies like the Euro and the Sterling. The dollar is causing issues everywhere and this is where people said the fed would break something, that sure seems to be unfolding now.

Today’s Unusual Action & What Stood Out

Well, all those recent tech puts I post here have certainly played out, I know it sounded hard to believe at the time, but this was more proof that markets are all a game and the flow of money is far more important than the “fundamentals”. The large players in the market have been hammering puts for weeks on end while retail has been buying “the value”. Anyways let’s, look at today’s unusual action