9/28 Recap

The TNX may be topping out today after the crazy run rates have had which is triggering this short term deadbeat bounce you’re seeing in markets. In the end markets are an inverse of rates and as you can see below as rates have taken off the last 2 months, equities have been pressured.

The SPY is still nowhere near the 8 ema so the bounce today is nice to see but insignificant unless there’s some followthrough. As you can see the RSI was max oversold so the bounce isn’t that surprising. Overall tomorrow is the end of the quarter and you’re going to have some crazy moves into that.

The VIX dumped hard from the 19+ we were at yesterday to 17 again as the 2 days of fear that we had were put to rest. All these moves in all these instruments are so chaotic and you’re no longer in a market trading fundamentals its just day to day rates/dollar/vix and that’s it. Anyone wasting their time worrying about fundamentals is doing themselves a disservice because those are things are meaningless when you have all this constant chaos with new fed speakers everyday giving a different potential scenario on the direction ahead.

With the quarter wrapping up tomorrow, the magnificent 7 end like this, Apple was the worst down 10.1% and Google was the best up 9.5%.

Trends

Utilities are coming on hot with alot of bullish action on the XLU this week. That usually isn’t a bullish sign for markets so keep an eye on that. The major put buys the last couple weeks seem centered around travel with AAL and ABNB topping the most bearish. Disney also continues seeing lots of call buying as it goes to new lows. I like DIS but at this point this its going to be a bad tax loss selling name late in the year how big tech was in December 2022 and it will do well after that.

Week To Date

2 Week

1 Month

Today’s Unusual Options Activity