9/29 Recap

As the quarter ends today, we got a cool PCE number this morning and equities made a strong push but have faded hard. The reality is these numbers always end up getting revised in a week or so and it is really hard to take any of them seriously at this point. For today, its hard to gauge much as the last day of the quarter is always a zoo. It was also nice to see oil reverse to $91 and be red today. The VIX is also down to 16.50 and the TNX is down another 1% following off yesterday’s topping candle. All those things are tailwinds for equities.

The daily is struggling with the 8 ema but is bouncing off oversold levels. Until it reclaims the 8 ema it is still in a position of weakness.

The quarterly chart wraps up today and this was our first red quarter in the past year. Our streak of green quarters ends at 3 but we were still well over the 8 quarter average which is overall a bullish sign for the market.

It’s almost time for earnings season to start up in 2 weeks kicking off with the banks and we have alot of questions to answer in the coming quarter regarding the consumer. This morning JPM revised their numbers and said maybe the consumer isn’t doing as poorly as we had thought. So we will have to see how companies guide in the quarter ahead as one of our big fears constantly is the health of the consumer.

Trends

Week To Date

2 Week

1 Month

Today’s Unusual Options Activity

Be careful with some of these because like that big block of QQQ puts below, when I noted those in the live chat, it was 10:30 and they went up over 100% already so on the short term ones like that, with those expiring Monday just be careful they’ve moved alot already. Even the SQQQ calls were 45 minutes later and for next week, those are up alot already. That’s sort of the issue with these recaps, obviously most of you aren’t trading intraday, but alot of these trades are short term and even if I get this recap out mid day alot of these short term ones have moved quite a bit.