9/29/25 Recap

The SPY is back over the 8 ema right and things look good but we could be forming a new lower high here if we don’t clear 667.34 soon. The concern this week is the potential government shutdown and what it means. Markets hate uncertainty and while nobody seems to care now because these things always resolve themselves, what if something odd happens and the market sells off? You just never know with these things so just keep a level head, don’t go overboard with leverage here and keep your eye on that 21 ema that we tested 3 days ago, you don’t want to see a close below that. So it’s just wait and see mode this week until that event passes hopefully smoothly.

So odd trades turning into big gainers is what this is all about and today we had one in MRUS. I highlighted it actually here on 8/13 and I noticed today there was a second risk reversal earlier this month you can see below on 9/8. It got bought out today for a 40% premium and the funny thing with this is I always tell you risk reversals on biotechs are the top of totem pole in terms of shady trades because anyone selling puts on a biotech better be right or they’re losing their job. This was a perfect example of why you should hold those in such high regard when you see them.

My Open Book

Trades I Made Today

1. PYPL - I sold 500 of the December 60 puts today for $1.28. Let me preface by saying PYPL is awful, its been terrible for years and I would never touch a chart this broken BUT today had some of the most insane flow I’ve seen and you’ll see them down below when I highlight it. I don’t know what’s going on but I got involved via put sales as I usually do.