The SPY is breaking below the 21 ema here. You could say we’re in a small bull flag here the last 7 sessions within a larger bull flag as we are still over the 50 day but this market simply cannot go up until rates cool off. This move in rates is an all timer and it is certainly pressuring President Trump on what happens with Iran. We may even be forced to take a bad deal to get this over with because you cannot have rates rising this much this fast without major things breaking. I would say right here as long as we are over the 100 day at 753.50 and rising, we’re ok. Hopefully worst case we double bottom off that and move forward. Something feels wrong, look at the move in financials with the XLF down almost 10% this month, these aren’t normal moves.
The big issue now is we are pretty much in a bear market outside of a handful of ai names. This is a chart posted by Don Durrett on Twitter that shows just how ugly this market is under the surface. 59% of names are 20% or more off their 52 week highs even as we sit pretty close to highs. Even names like Intel that have led all year are 20% off highs. This is the type of market where buying calls or holding commons is extra hard work unless you add in some premium selling.
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Here are today’s large cap momentum scans from the database, the rest of the small and mid cap scans can be found in the database link below.
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