9/30/25 Recap

The SPY is still hovering over the 8 ema which is a good sign into this uncertainty tonight with the government shutdown. I saw some data on the last 30 years and we’ve had 4 shutdowns where the average return was almost 5% a month later. So barring something catastrophic happening, which I just don’t see with how much Trump loves to remind us how good his stock market is doing, this likely blows over in the next few days in terms of the market. Maybe tomorrow you get a panic day or something but as long as we keep holding that 21 ema right below, we are ok. Today is also end of quarter and you’re likely going to see some weird moves into the end of the day related to positioning. I would like to see us turn up and make a new high over 667.34 otherwise we are running the risk this is just a lower high. Earnings season kicks off in 2 weeks so even if we had a period of weakness here it doesn’t concern me much because the VIX isn’t showing much fear right now and if tomorrow was a scary event, the VIX would be heating up.

The thing with all this information is I’m not going to nail every trade myself, I only highlight 4-5 a day. I can’t even take every trade myself, there just isn’t enough time of day for me to do all this, but if you dig through these 150+ trades I flag daily there are so many gems. Yesterday alone 2 that stood out were the CRWV 130/136 weeklies bought 6000x and the PATH 14/16 call spreads bought 10,000x. CRWV is up 13% right to 136.90 and PATH was up over 15 premarket before giving some back. This game is dirty, truly, and I try my best to flag what I flag but I can’t click buttons for you and honestly you’re going to have to be a self starter with all this data if you want to make the most of it and that’s what is so great about having 1700+ people in the discord to bounce ideas with. Those of you who nailed these 2 congrats, I wish I paid more attention.

My Open Book

Trades I Made Today