9/4/25 Recap

The SPY for the second time in a month has completely given technical traders a headfake. Anyone who respects the 21 ema as a place to reduce risk got shook out twice in the past month on 1 day closes below that as the market has reversed higher instantly both times. With where we are now, until a new high is made over that 649.48 you still run the risk of this being a lower high forming and we turn lower. You see my positioning in my book below, I’m not overly bullish and I’m not in any megacap tech. I’m basically neutral really at this time, we’ve run alot off the April lows, the market doesn’t have to go up for me to do well into year end but if it does I will do great. Every dip is seemingly bought and the risk never seems to be to the downside even when the market breaks spots you would have traditionally de-risked into. Even the Nasdaq broke the 50 day for a few hours for the first time in months this week and it instantly triggered a massive dip buy which has propelled the QQQ over the 8 ema again just 2 days later. The amount of buying on every dip is incredible and I can’t blame people, the dollar is falling into the abyss all year long, people would rather hold almost anything besides dollars.

My Open Book