9/5/25 Recap

The SPY was forming a nasty bearish engulfing candle an hour ago, but it is early in the session and we’ve recovered quite a bit. How we close today is critical to knowing whether this is really a reversal or not. If we do close with a bearish engulfing then it is very much a reversal and you need to take caution and lighten up. Today just felt like a blowoff top, you keep getting economic data that says the real economy is doing terrible and it just means equities keep going up, what a bizarre world we live in. The fed cutting rates is not bullish in any way, the fed is cutting rates because it has to stimulate the economy with Trump constantly ranting about things like housing which are really struggling. We remain over the 21 ema for now so nothing to be bearish about yet.

Also you have the largest company in our markets, NVDA completely breaking down after the OpenAI news. Look, NVDA was get stuck under the 50 day the last 3 sessions as you can see below, it was telling you something was wrong. The market kept going up and NVDA wasn’t participating. That’s the whole purpose of technical analysis in that when you see weakness you do not buy it, seemingly though, in 2025, most technically bearish setups end up being fakeouts and bullish. This one however was a little throwback to where a bear flag formed under the 50 day and then it followed through with a breakdown today. NVDA is nearly 10% of our market, if it has a prolonged move down, that will very much weigh on things. So keep an eye on this one.

My Open Book

I made alot of changes today and it was more about having to close up things to add a big new position.