9/6/25 Best Idea For The Week Ahead

The SPY closed up another week at new highs, look at this trend we have been riding since April just slow and steady without a single break below the 8 week(blue line). We had a couple tests recently which threatened our uptrend but in the end we resolved higher. There really isn’t much to be said about this market, we’re closing at highs while our 2 largest holdings, NVDA and MSFT, which compromise 14% of the market are simultaneously trading weak and losing their 8 week. If those 2 ever cooperated, it would be rocket fuel to this market. I’m not even really sure what to say about this market rates fell hard yesterday with TLT opening up over the 200 day for the first time in months, that isn’t a good thing, it did that because economically things are going so poorly that they’re pricing in faster rate cuts. Stocks shrugged off that news and gapped up, faded to deeply red, and then it mostly got bought up by end of day.

This was the TLT chart I referenced, you can see the clear gap up over such a key spot here. I was going to write this up as a best idea, but that’s boring, those 84.5 lows should be a phenomenal spot to sell long term puts at because we know rates are not going higher and it should be a fairly easy trade now which is why I put on that big put sale yesterday at 86 which would give me a basis of around that 84.5 level.

This week’s best idea is a name that just saw its first close over the 100 week since 2023. It’s made a very sharp run recently and we’re going to discuss a risk reversal that can be placed for some serious upside while giving you the chance to go long much lower at a very cheap valuation, dirt cheap actually.