The SPY is languishing here right over the 100 day after this tiny gap up on the release of the Anthropic S-1. This market needs a catalyst, we’ve been rangebound for 5 months and this week is our last opportunity to have a big one with most of the megacaps reporting and guiding. If they disappoint, I wouldn’t be shocked if end up heading lower to test that rising 200 day just below 730 now. If they appease investors, we can easily make new highs but I’m not sure how they can make anyone happy when they’re all going to guide to raising capex and lowering FCF. Nothing good happens when the market is below the 50 day and realistically if you want to avoid pain you’d just sit aside until it is reclaimed. Right here you’re betting we’re going to recover but it’s much easier to stay out of tech names until we’re back trending over the 50 day because we can easily just fall off a cliff here and you won’t miss much by just waiting. You see my positioning, I have short puts on tech much lower but my commons I’m in no tech names at the moment.
Database Update
I sent out a note midday Saturday here when we released the first update to the discover tool you can find in the database. I go over all the functionality but now when you open up the database you will see the highest hit rates from today’s flow. Again in future updates we’re going to give you the ability to filter however you’d like based on historical vix, trades you want, etc but it is alot of data we are backfilling and testing. This first update is giving you the best setups filtered by hit rate over the past 90 days. You can see that in the “this setups record” column. You can click that and see all similar setups and how they worked by clicking the numbers. We set a default rate of +30% because we want to show names that hit that at one point during the life of the trade. Remember you can always put your trade on just below all these players and increase your probability of success. I’m sure there will be some bugs here at first but just let us know if you see something and we will get to it right away.
So for example let’s say you click on the SOXL put sale today and it shows 45 of 45 with the same up hit
The first name at the top is FIGR you could click that #144898 next to it to see the life of that particular trade as seen below. So we’ve got every name I’ve logged over the years tracked from start to finish and now we’re trying to give you the ability to predict how new incoming trades are going to play out based on historical data. It’s exciting because this hasn’t been done before and we’re really in uncharted waters here of what we’re trying to do with all this data. So enjoy the first update and know we have lots of things we’re testing to open up this tool in the months ahead giving you the ability to really filter as deep as you would like.
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Here are today’s large cap momentum scans from the database
My Open Book
Trades I Made Today
