The SPY gapped down overnight as oil rose on the rumors from Axios that Trump was preparing to restart the war in Iran. I think it is too early to get much from that just looking at the charts. We’re over all the key moving averages and have not even violated the 8 day yet. If we do restart the war the market will not be happy and if you believe oil, up 5% today, then it really may be time to start reducing leverage and taking positions off. I have a hard time believing he would start anything before midterms in early November as that would be super unpopular with voters but again oil is up 5% today so the toughest market we’ve faced in years continues to be tough, what’s new. The Kospi being down nearly 3% overnight also didn’t help after Samsung missed earnings which put pressure on alot of our ai names. Overall we look fine for the time being, I'd start to worry when we lose that 21 ema right around 770.
I always tell you all to focus on the put sales in the data here everyday, they’re the most valuable ones in my opinion and look at the massive CMG put sales I flagged 2 days ago. This morning Chipotle had a rumored takeover by Starbucks and up 6%. Whoever sold those 100,000 puts on monday and Tuesday certainly did well. I still think this piece here is the most important one you can read before diving into this data. Trades are about probabilities and the tool I’m dropping Saturday is going to help alot but the put sales here work at an over 80% clip, focus on those, I know buying calls is fun, but the put selling side of things has a much higher rate of success.
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Here are today’s large cap momentum scans from the database, the rest of today’s trades can be found in the database link below
My Open Book
Trades I Made Today
