1/15 Recap

The SPY opened up right at the 21 ema after that cool CPI report today. While everyone is excited I would say be patient, see where we close today, look at the chart below, it has been a series of lower highs going back a few weeks, that isn’t exactly bullish. We would need to see a break of that trend and now the only resistance left in our way is that 50 day, the yellow line, above. We are flat on the year as chaotic as it has been, but bank earnings were fine this morning, now we all await the megacaps reporting soon. We have had 2 breaks below the 100 day in the last 2 sessions and both reclaimed it before the close. So nothing to get too bearish over, but at the same time nothing too bullish, we’re just stuck in this web of moving averages for now, no decisive break in either direction.

A point of caution in the sea of bullishness today would be the dollar, look at the DXY, it tried to break down but reclaimed the 8 day and is now barely off for the day. Ideally on a big day up in the market you would see the dollar lose steam and it has not. So keep an eye on this.

Recent Trades

SRE - In monday’s recap here I mentioned this risk reversal and today it is up 5.5% which for a name like this is a monster move. That risk reversal may have indeed ended up marking the bottom.

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