Alright guys, I wanted to start this off by saying HZNP was taken out this morning, if you go back through my options tables for last week it had a couple nice trades put on beforehand, funny how that works.
Thanks for the repeated warnings. We should all prepare. Are you even closing out positions like your short AMZN 75 puts even though they are so far OTM?
Yesterday you said that if you took a position in SPLK, you would be concerned about the gap below. What is the rationale for thinking that a gap somehow attracts a stock? Are there statistics to back that up? Given two similar charts, one with a gap and one without, what are the odds that the gap will fill vs that the price of the other stock will reach that same price? (BTW, SPLK is up 4% this morning.)
So I closed out all my large name positions. Amazon,meta,Pinterest, oxy,etc. The smaller names had no bid I liked to close out so I’m going to hold but those are so far away from being at risk I’m not concerned. Why bothers me here is we are getting a big move in the next 2 days, these fed days and cpi never mattered till this year, so it’s a new wrinkle we all have to accept. I’m just up so much this year that I don’t need to gamble here and potentially be wrong, I always wait for a trend and follow it. Now splunk is up bc coupa was acquired this morning and people realize these activists will make deals regardless. So even if markets decline the splunk,wix,Pinterest names will always have a bid which has been a big part of my thesis for sticking to those sorts of names. As for gaps, that’s just the first rule of trading, all gaps fill, data wise I don’t know, but it is very rare to have a breakaway gap, it has to be on a major catalyst that the stock wouldn’t refill, hence why I always try to target gaps as a natural spot to sell puts bc it’s a natural bounce spot.
And again if I am wrong and markets rally, I think that rally will be short lived unless we close over 406 on the spy so the risk reward with spy at 396 now just isn’t there
Thanks for the repeated warnings. We should all prepare. Are you even closing out positions like your short AMZN 75 puts even though they are so far OTM?
Yesterday you said that if you took a position in SPLK, you would be concerned about the gap below. What is the rationale for thinking that a gap somehow attracts a stock? Are there statistics to back that up? Given two similar charts, one with a gap and one without, what are the odds that the gap will fill vs that the price of the other stock will reach that same price? (BTW, SPLK is up 4% this morning.)
So I closed out all my large name positions. Amazon,meta,Pinterest, oxy,etc. The smaller names had no bid I liked to close out so I’m going to hold but those are so far away from being at risk I’m not concerned. Why bothers me here is we are getting a big move in the next 2 days, these fed days and cpi never mattered till this year, so it’s a new wrinkle we all have to accept. I’m just up so much this year that I don’t need to gamble here and potentially be wrong, I always wait for a trend and follow it. Now splunk is up bc coupa was acquired this morning and people realize these activists will make deals regardless. So even if markets decline the splunk,wix,Pinterest names will always have a bid which has been a big part of my thesis for sticking to those sorts of names. As for gaps, that’s just the first rule of trading, all gaps fill, data wise I don’t know, but it is very rare to have a breakaway gap, it has to be on a major catalyst that the stock wouldn’t refill, hence why I always try to target gaps as a natural spot to sell puts bc it’s a natural bounce spot.
And again if I am wrong and markets rally, I think that rally will be short lived unless we close over 406 on the spy so the risk reward with spy at 396 now just isn’t there