I’m going to make today’s post public because I had so many ask questions after my thread today, so for today only, last time I will do this so you can see what I post, I couldn’t answer all the DM’s there were just too many.
Re: inflation, the data seems pretty clear that it has indeed dropped precipitously. You're remarkably nimble in response to changing info, so I'm curious what you're seeing that's suggesting there remains a disconnect between a soft-landing policy stance and the actual underlying macro fundamentals. If you're relying on anecdotal evidence, could it be time to take another look and recalibrate?
(You may not agree with them politically, but I find Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman to be helpful guides. Larry Summers is a jackass, but he seems to have come around to the consensus view that things are looking surprisingly okay... -ish.)
Btw, I'm the guy whose dad placed trades for John Malone in the '90s, before he (my dad) got sick. I placed my first options trades last week. Learning a lot from all your posts. Glad I subscribed.
The inflation data is all made up anyways, I've said that forever, whatever they want it to be, it is. We're all upper class people in here, we're trading options with play money, and even then most of us are noticing drastic cost increases. My car insurance up 25% this year, health insurance up 10%, groceries up 30% or more. Everything costs more, we are all pretty fortunate to be able to make enough to where it doesnt affect our day to day lives. Regular people are struggling. My maid has asked me for 3 raises this year, she's making $15/hr cash, no taxes, and can barely pay bills. Remember minimum wage is $7.25 or whatever in the US. This is someone working 40 hrs/week and not even paying taxes at a pretty decent wage and can barely get by.
Soft land is all a made up rhetoric, what you're seeing now is this massive divide between the haves and have nots. Those with assets like stocks and homes, they're fine. We're rapidly evolving into a society where the middle class is beyond pushed closer to the poor and that's not why america became the super power it was.
I get everyone is thrilled stocks are up, but stocks up is what will drive even more inflation as people spend more in this vicious loop because their stocks are up and they're feeling wealthier. The fed spent all of last year trying to talk down stocks, it didn't work, and now the market has sniffed out their nonsense and frankly doesn't believe a word they say. Market is pricing in rate cuts this year as powell says otherwise. Market knows he's stuck, he knows he's stuck, but he won't openly admit it. The inversion across yields is telling us there will be no soft landing.
Great stuff as usual, James.
Re: inflation, the data seems pretty clear that it has indeed dropped precipitously. You're remarkably nimble in response to changing info, so I'm curious what you're seeing that's suggesting there remains a disconnect between a soft-landing policy stance and the actual underlying macro fundamentals. If you're relying on anecdotal evidence, could it be time to take another look and recalibrate?
(You may not agree with them politically, but I find Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman to be helpful guides. Larry Summers is a jackass, but he seems to have come around to the consensus view that things are looking surprisingly okay... -ish.)
Btw, I'm the guy whose dad placed trades for John Malone in the '90s, before he (my dad) got sick. I placed my first options trades last week. Learning a lot from all your posts. Glad I subscribed.
Thx!
Grant
Hey Grant,
The inflation data is all made up anyways, I've said that forever, whatever they want it to be, it is. We're all upper class people in here, we're trading options with play money, and even then most of us are noticing drastic cost increases. My car insurance up 25% this year, health insurance up 10%, groceries up 30% or more. Everything costs more, we are all pretty fortunate to be able to make enough to where it doesnt affect our day to day lives. Regular people are struggling. My maid has asked me for 3 raises this year, she's making $15/hr cash, no taxes, and can barely pay bills. Remember minimum wage is $7.25 or whatever in the US. This is someone working 40 hrs/week and not even paying taxes at a pretty decent wage and can barely get by.
Soft land is all a made up rhetoric, what you're seeing now is this massive divide between the haves and have nots. Those with assets like stocks and homes, they're fine. We're rapidly evolving into a society where the middle class is beyond pushed closer to the poor and that's not why america became the super power it was.
I get everyone is thrilled stocks are up, but stocks up is what will drive even more inflation as people spend more in this vicious loop because their stocks are up and they're feeling wealthier. The fed spent all of last year trying to talk down stocks, it didn't work, and now the market has sniffed out their nonsense and frankly doesn't believe a word they say. Market is pricing in rate cuts this year as powell says otherwise. Market knows he's stuck, he knows he's stuck, but he won't openly admit it. The inversion across yields is telling us there will be no soft landing.
But yes, stocks are up, for now.
Btw, I bought the $pins dip. Good call. ;)
Unfortunately I sold $meta at a measly $180! lol
ha!
Very helpful, thx. Point taken re: vicious loop.
Thanks a lot for this summary, good stuff to keep clear mind for me. Keep the good work!
Thanks simon
Hey James, you said UBER puts are sold in FEB, but table shows APR
It was calls bought in feb puts sold apr