2/6/25 Recap

The SPY awaits big earnings today from AMZN along with a jobs number in the morning. The Amazon report will ripple through everything as they themselves are in everything from cloud to advertising to retail. The SPX is still pricing in a pretty large move by tomorrow so be careful. Bulls would like to see us push over 610 and bears would like to see us break under that 50 day at 598.29.

The dollar continues its breakdown, the DXY is toying with that 50 day now, but it hasn’t made any progress since it broke trend recently. This is a tailwind for equities. Bulls would like to see a further breakdown from this 107 level we’re at now.

Recent Trades

EA - In friday’s recap I mentioned these EA call spreads I saw here. EA was 124.xx and they laid out .85 a piece on 10,000 of the 130/135 call spreads expiring this friday Right now EA has made an incredible move to 131.71 as I type this and those calls have more than doubled. You can close them up now for a nice profit. Beautiful move after that big gap down. More importantly here if you used the risk reversal I mentioned you would have a huge win bc those March puts collapsed from $1 to .15 right now.

My Open Book

1 small position added today, it was an obscure name I saw a really odd 100% OTM call on today so I threw on a risk reversal to follow. It’s nothing material to my book, not even a 1% loss in a worst case scenario. I haven’t really decided what my next move is until this weekend I want to sit down and look over some data in my database when I have time, right now waiting for these META short puts I sold yesterday to roll off tomorrow and free up the margin. Obviously a lot will change with how AMZN goes for me, I’m really not expecting much from Amazon, up would be great as it would accelerate my timeline, but down wouldn’t be so horrible as I have 17 months to get over 250 and see my trade hit its full value.