3/20/25 Recap

The SPY continues its push higher after FOMC yesterday, while we are making progress over the 8 ema, we remain well below the 200 day and even a shorter term barometer like the 21. This move is a nice relief for bulls but it doesn’t exactly signify a trend shift, yet. If we can clear those 2 key spots we can begin to discuss a bottom being in, until then, you really cannot. We still have the big April 2nd tariff date looming and I know the bulls will say “its priced in” but I’m not sure you can ever price in something like that and I think the market would like to see us back down on that decision. I definitely am in the camp the market won’t be too thrilled if we went ahead and implemented those tariffs in 2 weeks. You could even argue that this is just a bear flag forming at lows here. The real answer is we have tons of uncertainty ahead, while there will be bounces and sell offs, it is just too hard to say go long most things for a longer term trade in this environment.

Recent Trades

FIVE - In monday’s recap here I noted these risk reversals and today the name is up 8.5% to 81.xx. These risk reversals are about as bullish as it gets and when I flag them its always best to look deeper at them. I know FIVE isn’t the sort of name you want to deploy big capital into, but you have to remember the success rate is much higher on these trades so sometimes you have to just close your nose and follow along.

My Open Book