3/21/25 Recap

The SPY broke back down under that bear flag it was forming, this is just a nasty tape, there isn’t much to say as we languish below the 200 day. Even a name like Micron had a double beat yesterday and gapped up hard and faded the whole move to red. This tape is going to eat bulls and bears alive with the constant violent moves, the only thing you can do in a tape like this aside from being all cash is sell premium and wait. We’re now going for our 10th close below the 200 day, you can see that 50 day sloping down now and it seems likely within a month or so we’re going to get that “death cross” unless the market picks up fast. The one bright spot today is we just took a sharp turn higher after Trump did just mention minutes ago that there would be “flexibility” on tariffs meaning he is likely watching this market struggle and he knows implementing a full scale trade war on April 2nd is likely not too wise.

If you go back to that February 27th emergency email I sent out here that was during the second red week we were facing, now we’re finishing up a 5th straight red week. The charts were telling you that money was exiting on a longer timeframe and prolonged pain was likely, that is exactly what we got. That is why we pay attention to those moving averages, and now we’re even losing the 50 week. This market has taken a bad turn and this level of technical damage doesn’t just repair quickly.

Recent Trades

XOM - In monday’s recap here I noted these weekly Exxon calls that were bought for .70 at the time, Exxon ending up hitting a high of 116.47 this week and those calls more than tripled. That was an odd buy on a weekly timeframe and they paid off immensely.

My Open Book