3/29/26 Best Idea For The Week Ahead
The SPY wrapped up about as bad a week as we could have imagined closing at the lows while knifing through the 50 week. This is what was concerning me when I titled the post “ It’s time to be cautious” here on March 13th. The reality is these 8/21 bearish crossovers on the S&P and Nasdaq are rare, this is our 4th in 6 years, but every single one is followed with a vicious move down and this one did not disappoint. Now we begin to wonder will history repeat soon with a Trump pivot at the 100 week below like he did in 2025?
Right now we’ve closed red 5 straight weeks, our biggest losing streak since 2022 and the market is just not happy with the slew of news we’re getting regarding this war. The good news is no President is history has been capable of the single day pump like Donald Trump, remember last April when he told everyone it looked like a good day to buy and followed up a few hours later sending the market up 10% in 1 session? I don’t think a move like that is possible here, but Donald is always capable of a massive pump on some fluff news. There are things that are working, it just isn’t tech. Oil, Materials, etc are working, names like Intel which has been top trends all year in the database is still up 10%, it isn’t all dire out there its just money has rotated to names not alot of us are in. Even I’m now involved in a couple energy names in size in my book, you have to be at this moment because the 100% tech thing works 90% of the time, but this is the 10% of the time it doesn’t. Bottom line, historically the vix has not remained at 31+ for very long, nobody wants to hold into the unknown weekends right now, but these are usually decent long term buying opportunities when the vix is this juiced.
This week’s best idea is a tech name that is trading at around 12x 2028 earnings while still growing nicely. It has been thrown out with every other tech name but I think it is approaching silly levels at this moment and we will look back in a couple years at this incredible buying opportunity. Let’s look at a couple various trade ideas to play this name 30% off recent highs.
