3/3/25 Recap

The SPY faded that big gap up overnight on the crypto reserve announcement from Trump. We ran right up into that confluence of moving averages the 8 and 50, we rejected there and have pushed back under the 100 day for now. There’s alot of time left in the session so we’ll have to see where we close but that wasn’t too inspiring of a move. Trump teased with a big market announcement tonight so we will have to see the reaction to that tomorrow. Overall just more of what we’ve dealt with all year, just fading the moves up with uninspiring action. Until we get back over the 21 ema that is now sloping down, it is just realistically going to be more of this action daily. We also got pretty terrible data from Atlanta Fed today with Q1 GDP -2.8% vs -1.5%. It just seems like one negative economic datapoint after another these days.

Recent Trades

Let’s go with TLT from the weekend best idea 2 weeks ago here. Since that post it is up 4% while the market is red, today is ex dividend so if you held shares coming into today you’re going to get a nice payment this week and this really held up into the market weakness. It did its job as intended.

If you put on a risk reversal like this one I drew up below, those short puts are up 30% in less than 2 weeks and the calls are up 20% today so even if you didn’t want to hold on, you caught a really nice move on TLT you can cash in but since the trade is for a credit, you can hold on and aren’t really at risk of anything until it is below 85.

My Open Book