4/2/25 Recap

The SPY still can’t get over that 8 ema which is a red flag although we did breakthrough today. I think the market is in wait and see mode until the tariff announcements this afternoon once the market closes. I still stand by yesterday’s comment that the lows are in unless we close below that 550 level so the risk/reward of going long is really about 2% here which is all you can do as a trader is put on longs and stop where new lows are made which is why I put on all those longs yesterday. My thinking is this afternoon he announces tariffs and they’re less bad than expected and we move forward, if I’m wrong, 2% lower I would close out everything. Let’s see what comes of all this today, until it passes there really isn’t much to pontificate about.

Recent Trades

FIVE - In the 3/17 recap here I flagged this weird risk reversal as FIVE looked to be falling into the abyss, it has turned around sharply and rallied about 8% in the past 2 weeks in the market weakness to nearly 82. This player nailed the bottom on this one.

My Open Book