5/23/25 Recap

I’m heading out a little early today we are going on a trip for the long weekend so sending this out early. The move in the SPY shouldn’t shock anyone here, I discussed this ad nauseam the last 2 sessions, this was just a textbook break of the 8 ema, followed by a retest, and now we’ve moved down to that 200 day and the cluster of support there at 575. The technicals were right and we bounced off the 200 day so far. The macd is rolling over so we have to see what comes next but the bond market was getting ugly, we hit near 2 decade highs yesterday and Trump really didn’t have a choice but to ramp the trade war today because it got yields down. If you’ve learned anything from Trump in the last month it is that he basically does whatever the market needs him to do. When we were at lows he gave us multiple pauses and tweets to pump us and now with yields causing him issues, he barked at Apple this morning and issued 50% tariffs on Europe starting next week and yields fell. Let’s see what happens next because if we hold this 575 level we are ok. Like I said in yesterday’s recap, the market sends you warning signs, 2 closes below the 8 ema were just that, what was coming next didn’t really matter but bigger players were not interested and that’s why we kept closing so weak. I do think we may announce a trade deal with Japan over this long weekend just based on how X, US Steel is acting today up 7%. So we may get some bullish catalyst in that regard.

Lets talk about that MSTR position I had that I exited 2 days ago, I’ve probably saved myself $300k by selling that but let’s talk about the why. So I do think Microstrategy goes materially higher from here in time, but when I first this trade up on that weekend best idea post on 4/19 here you can see the uptrend was just beginning. We had just seen the 8 ema crossover the 21 ema and I rode a pretty clean trade from 315 to 430 at the highs and I sold out at 405. Why did I sell? 4 days before I sold out we broke the 8 ema as you can see in the chart below and instantly bounced back, that is what strong charts do. They tend to retest that move and that is when you want to exit if you didn’t the first time, so I did. That second 8 ema break was my sign this is going to break again and I sold it all. 2 days later, it is now 30 dollars lower. I did sell puts at 350 and 340 for next week because you can see the 50 day(yellow) and 100 day(white) in that range and those were my next spots of support. Today it is losing the 21 ema so some weakness should be expected. Maybe I can get put shares there where I sold them next week and ride it back up since I’m still bullish on the underlying asset they hold in bitcoin. If that happens I would have saved myself over $50/share on a large position.

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