5/25 Best Idea For The Week Ahead

This weeks best idea is a name that had 7 insider buys in the past month and an activist who continues to buy more and more after already holding over 10% of the company. Also there is a ton of recent directional option flow looking for much higher. I have a great trade in mind to try and capture this upside with no cash layout on your end but before we get into this weeks best idea, I had a few people ask me about my comment in last weekends post about some trades that have gone better than the 100x return on CPNG and they wanted more detail, so let’s start there.

AVAV

This trade isn’t over so I can’t say it’s done, but did you know this July risk reversal I noted back on 4/8 Here. If you put that trade on below it cost you .20 and today AVAV is up 30% since to 199.77 those calls have gone from a .20 cost to 26.50 for an insane 130x+ gain in under 2 months. The short puts at 120 are worth almost zero now with the stock having moved up $50 in a few weeks. If you’re still holding this, why? Sell it already this was an unreal move for 6 weeks. Even if you just bought calls straight up they’re up over 5x now. You couldn’t ask for more in such a short period.

You can see where the volume came in early April when I highlighted them and as of right now they’re a 25.70 x 27.30 bid to sell.

A Year Of Data

So here is the tally on all my weekend best ideas going back to last April, again these are typically longer term setups that you can add to your book, as always if you stick to a basic principle of cutting all names at a defined level you will be ok. I use a 10% loss, others give more wiggle room, if you do this, you will never take a substantial loss.

If you’re using options targeting a certain date, I would never close for a loss, but I would sell puts beneath it to try and reduce/offset costs if it goes against you. Bottom line a trade should work right away and if it doesn't, the entry was wrong and you should accept it and move on. Hoping and waiting isn’t a strategy.

These are all the trades from the database of discord user Luckmaster where he tracks all my daily trade ideas, this only begins last April 2023. You can see 6 of the weekend best ideas in the last 13 months have gone for over 50% return from their post with the biggest winner of those going for 125% on common. There have been losers too but you can’t ever let 1 name sink you, so as long as you’re disciplined and cut losses at a defined level, the max loss is irrelevant, but yes, I was just wrong on those.

Just remember not every trade I post is going to work. They’re just not, my objective is to filter through millions of trades daily, find the 100 or so oddest trades everyday based on my parameters and then spotlight just 5 of those deeper to give you trade ideas. Within those, there’ve been a few monster moves and if you structure trades properly these can lead to some incredible gains like the CPNG trade last week or the AVAV trade above.

Even if you don’t use options, just buying commons on these directional moves can be beneficial as you can see above. The objective is not to take every single trade I post, I get so many emails every week saying this is too time consuming and there is too much information. The market is a vast place, these are my daily findings in the options market. The goal should be for you, with the help of the near 800 member community in the discord to bounce ideas and figure out which of these trades is most intriguing and get involved in some manner.