James you start this post with the possibility of the bullish trend spreading to the wider market. Doesn't the VIX at a multi year low give you pause however? I find myself holding back from initiating new long positions because I'm expecting a VIX spike. As you say the charts are showing us direction but how do you reconcile the two
well, when the vix is low like this you certainly dont want to sell puts because a vix spike will crush those. If you look longer term at say a 1 year chart, I just posted one on my twitter, it could be a base breakout. It's hard to say right here what the overall market will do. What I know is many high quality names have lagged, and I think one should focus on those, and allocate less to the names that have run hard. I think whatever dip may come from the TGA refill will be bought quickly. It's pretty apparent at this moment that the trend is bullish and all the charts are breaking out. The problem many have is they get bearish on breakouts. 4200 was the big spot, we fought it multiple times, now we're above it, this is a breakout. I stated my case for why I think Amazon is going to thrive going forward, you have to find names that have underperformed like that, and allocate to those. I don't think the NVDA/AMD type names will continue to lead us forever. That's why I joked about the S&P 493 bc the others really haven't done much this year.
Appreciate the lengthy response. Yes I have been waiting for a dip all week to go long AMZN, still waiting LOL.
The TGA refill process has started end of last week and may turn out to be a more gradual process than I expected. Sideline cash may ensure that every drop is short lived
For what it’s worth James, I do not copy you. I use your data. I was in ALB before you explicitly highlighted it. I was in CCL before you explicitly highlighted it. I am in AMZN but not as big a position as you. I love your service but copying your book is a fools errand. Everyone is a different position in life with a different risk profile. I can feel the disappointment you have over the copying through your words. I just want you to know that not everyone copies and that there is truly compelling value in your data.
Copying is for people incapable of independent thought, lack confidence that their own thoughts will lead to good outcomes, or lack motivation to do the real work of learning. As long as your book is out there, you’re going to attract this set of people.
I’ll put myself out there and represent all of us here who value your data: PLEASE don’t let the copiers from discourage you.
Thanks I appreciate it, I just get frustrated when people message me saying what am i paying for if you're not doing anything haha. I've had i'd say maybe 20 of those? I said the only reason I post my book is because I'm upfront about what I'm doing. I know right now everyone is doing well with stocks going up everyday but when I started this last June, that wasnt the case and the outperformance was really notable because I stuck to focusing on pockets of strength, following trends, and letting it work. There will come a time again when all stocks stop going up everyday and you're going to have to focus on pockets of strength again. It always happens. Truly, the market is barely up 2-3% over the last year and I'm up right around 100% right now, next week at the 1 year I will go over more in detail. Thanks again and have a great weekend.
I think your book provides a good reference for the names that are your highest convictions and for the nuances around strike prices and duration. Very useful for those learning the ropes on out selling. It's also great to see you focus on what's important - family
Thanks James!
Have a great weekend :)
Thank you! Have a good weekend
You too!
Thank you James
Enjoy your weekend john
James you start this post with the possibility of the bullish trend spreading to the wider market. Doesn't the VIX at a multi year low give you pause however? I find myself holding back from initiating new long positions because I'm expecting a VIX spike. As you say the charts are showing us direction but how do you reconcile the two
well, when the vix is low like this you certainly dont want to sell puts because a vix spike will crush those. If you look longer term at say a 1 year chart, I just posted one on my twitter, it could be a base breakout. It's hard to say right here what the overall market will do. What I know is many high quality names have lagged, and I think one should focus on those, and allocate less to the names that have run hard. I think whatever dip may come from the TGA refill will be bought quickly. It's pretty apparent at this moment that the trend is bullish and all the charts are breaking out. The problem many have is they get bearish on breakouts. 4200 was the big spot, we fought it multiple times, now we're above it, this is a breakout. I stated my case for why I think Amazon is going to thrive going forward, you have to find names that have underperformed like that, and allocate to those. I don't think the NVDA/AMD type names will continue to lead us forever. That's why I joked about the S&P 493 bc the others really haven't done much this year.
Appreciate the lengthy response. Yes I have been waiting for a dip all week to go long AMZN, still waiting LOL.
The TGA refill process has started end of last week and may turn out to be a more gradual process than I expected. Sideline cash may ensure that every drop is short lived
For what it’s worth James, I do not copy you. I use your data. I was in ALB before you explicitly highlighted it. I was in CCL before you explicitly highlighted it. I am in AMZN but not as big a position as you. I love your service but copying your book is a fools errand. Everyone is a different position in life with a different risk profile. I can feel the disappointment you have over the copying through your words. I just want you to know that not everyone copies and that there is truly compelling value in your data.
Copying is for people incapable of independent thought, lack confidence that their own thoughts will lead to good outcomes, or lack motivation to do the real work of learning. As long as your book is out there, you’re going to attract this set of people.
I’ll put myself out there and represent all of us here who value your data: PLEASE don’t let the copiers from discourage you.
Thanks I appreciate it, I just get frustrated when people message me saying what am i paying for if you're not doing anything haha. I've had i'd say maybe 20 of those? I said the only reason I post my book is because I'm upfront about what I'm doing. I know right now everyone is doing well with stocks going up everyday but when I started this last June, that wasnt the case and the outperformance was really notable because I stuck to focusing on pockets of strength, following trends, and letting it work. There will come a time again when all stocks stop going up everyday and you're going to have to focus on pockets of strength again. It always happens. Truly, the market is barely up 2-3% over the last year and I'm up right around 100% right now, next week at the 1 year I will go over more in detail. Thanks again and have a great weekend.
I think your book provides a good reference for the names that are your highest convictions and for the nuances around strike prices and duration. Very useful for those learning the ropes on out selling. It's also great to see you focus on what's important - family