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Wrong All The Time's avatar

Thanks James for your insights. Amazing write up.

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David's avatar

Well said and appreciate your analytical thoughts on a wide range of things, such as the comparison of capex cost between companies and why it might not a good idea for Amazon.

Also, on an unrelated topic, and for a future article could you write your thoughts why the 8 ema and 21 ema crossing may signify a market change. Just trying to understand the "why" of it between these two emas.

Thanks, again.

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James Bulltard's avatar

well those are the key short term moving averages algos are programmed to trade off. So when we had that 8/21 bear cross a couple weeks back and I sent out that AH note, that was the start of the chaos, now every pop keeps being sold, whenever we can get the 8 to cross up through the 21 we can begin to discuss it being a new uptrend

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David's avatar

Thanks for steering me on this 😁

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RefinedWarrior's avatar

As always, incredible insight! Wow. Thank you. 🐐

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David's avatar

Thanks, James.

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James Bulltard's avatar

Thanks for reading

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CaveCam's avatar

Riding this Amazon train with you, have thoroughly loved seeing the (warranted) digs on Tesla. Next Tuesday should be a ride!

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James Bulltard's avatar

So what we only see you in the chat during football season?

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Jackie_Treehorn's avatar

As always, I appreciate your thoughts and time you put into your notes. And many thanks for your calming demeanor and prescient knowledge of the market and all things Amazon. Cheers

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James Bulltard's avatar

Call them back and tell them you want a second Porsche for June 2026

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David's avatar

Hi James, I know you stated Amazon shouldn't do a divy but maybe a buyback later, provided their FCF is stronger.

But with Google's announcement with Divy and buy back, I'm curious to see if you increase the probability that Amazon will announce themselves, given they will likely be under pressure to follow with the Mega Cap and when?

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James Bulltard's avatar

hey David,

I hope not, dividends are not good use of capital, they take money out of the company. they provide a short term pump but meta did it last q and sold off today. The reality is warren Buffett loves dividends but won't pay one himself at Berkshire. Why is that? Buybacks are much more efficient. META and GOOG did buybacks long before a dividend, I suspect amazon will too. Look Amazon is a real business, building warehouse, data center, buying trucks, etc they have big Capex needs, more than any co on earth, meta and google are low Capex ad businesses, they don't need much capital on hand. I personally don't see it from amazon, but if they feel the pressure too, they might. I hope not. I'd rather see capital go into high return things, the reason google bulls are so happy is bc google management sucks, they were lighting money on fire with moonshots, its better to give it to shareholders than let them blow it on more bad stuff.

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Aaron's avatar

Great work James. Long Amazon for years to come

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James Bulltard's avatar

Other than Microsoft I’d say its the only one that interests me on that timeframe

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