Hey James, Before telling you my performance, I wanted to get to what's most important. You can't put a price tag on family and good health and I'm 100% pulling for you and your family all the way. With that being said, since the start of 2023 when I started focusing on the patented Bulltard strategy (which is ironically also around when the market bottomed lol), I've returned just a hair over a double. Needless to say, I'll take that over an 18-month stretch all day every day. Thanks for continuing to show the art of what's possible, and cheers to hopefully a fine 2nd half!
Congrats man. You know what amazes me, you’re a professor, there’s another professor in the discord named BTCapital, he’s a physics professor, but super sharp guy like yourself and he too has gotten the game about as well as anyone in the discord and said he’s gotten so slick with it all he doubled his income this year. I think he’s someone you should bounce ideas with in the discord I know you’re not very active but he is very similar to you in the analytical thought and has his own style that is working very well. Congrats again always happy to hear people doing well
You must be thinking of someone else as I'm not a professor. I'm just a garden variety IT guy. I do see BTCapital's comments in discord all the time and I can see the guy knows his stuff. Thanks again for starting the discord!
James, I know this has been a very difficult time for you, and I apologize in advance for this post since it's somewhat negative.
A non-trivial part of the gains in your account were destroyed on Friday. The graphs comparing your account to the indices were through June 27, not June 28. As you know AMZN was down 2.32% Friday. That must have made a sigificant difference. If you stop at the close on June 24, the results would have been significantly worse.
**On Best Ideas**
I've kept track of the Best Ideas trades since the start of the year. (There were 24 of them. SPOT was an enormous winner. The rest were so-so.) Looking at just the put side, the average gain on all the trades, closed and currently open, is $91. The average margin reqmt is $421. These are computed assuming contracts of size 1 on all trades. To determine a reasonable margin rerquirement, each trade assumes a put spread rather than a naked put. (Some of the best ideas recommend put spreads; some recommend naked puts. As indicated, all contracts are assumed to be put spreads.) If you leave out the SPOT trade, the average gain would have been $60 and the average margin reqmt $387.
On the call side (again, one contract), SPOT was the ony significant winner (up nearly $7,000). Except for one other winner (up $88), all the rest were losers. The average gain to date with/without SPOT was $80/$-245. Since most of the calls are still open, perhaps it's unfair to look at the results to date.
For the trades taken as a whole, including the additional puts needed to cover the cost of the call, the average gain with/without SPOT was $366/$-26. Again, most of the calls are still open.
In short,
o the put side would have been an overall winner with or without SPOT.
o the call side would have been a disaster without SPOT but a winner with SPOT.
o the trades over all (including multiple puts) would have been a winner with SPOT and a slight loss without SPOT.
This confirms a couple things James says in this post.
He says: "I think alot of you have too many positions."
A Frankenstein of positions based on Best Ideas is the very definition of too many positions. I don't look at his Best Ideas each weekend as something I need to run out and jam into my portfolio. I look at everything James says as a window into how he thinks. Evaluating the Best Ideas as a basket feels to me like the equivalent of treating the Best Ideas as portfolio gospel.
He says: "You have to think more about how am I going to move my whole portfolio and the answer is bigger bets on fewer names."
This is the exact opposite of treating the Best Ideas as a basket of names in a portfolio.
Having followed James for about 17 months now, taking in everything he's written, and put it in the context of my own trading and portfolio construction, he's right: bigger bets on fewer names is the way to go. I've seen how my portfolio has grown and changed and where I've won since subscribing to this substack. The fact that I've diversified with a bunch of names has hurt me. I couldn't agree more to just stick with names where you have conviction. For me, the tough part has been getting enough conviction to go for it. As James gives us more examples where he gets conviction, that's going to help me build my own case going forward.
The problem with a best idea is it’s truly not my best idea bc I post so many through out the week and I don’t want to be redundant on Saturday so it’s really more idea with a lot of option flow that I’ve yet to discuss this week if I’m honest
That helps clear things up, but it leaves subscribers like me in a bind. Considering all the names you mention during any given week, I (and probably other subscribers) have a hard time deciding which ones to act on. How would you suggest we filter the trade ideas you mention so that we limit the number of positions in our book? It's fine to say that one should limit our book to a relatively small number of ideas in which we have conviction (that makse a lot of sense), but my conviction depends significantly on your recommendatations.
How would you suggest we decide which of the ideas you mention to act on--and when to dump one position for another? One thing I found very useful about your posting your book before you concentrated into AMZN was that your book gave me a way to see which of the ideas you mention were ones that you thought were worth investing in yourself. It would be very(!) valuable for me if you would do something like that again.
That does not leave you in a bind in any way. This substack is about option flow and idea curation, you get that. I'd say with what you've invested here and your returns to this point, you aren't in a bind in any way. I tell you what I'm in, I obviously cannot come up with 50 weekly trade ideas ontop of the 25 I already put out, that isn't even possible for anyone.
I have no idea how to suggest anything for anyone, I suggest any name you want you sell puts into support as a starting place and buy calls when you feel it right. I really haven't had anyone ever tell me they're in a bind over what I share, if anything I make everyone's lives easier by filtering out their headache of scanning names then looking at charts and then option flow. I know you always have ideas on how to fix things here, but you know as of right now I'm #13 on the finance niche man, that's really hard to do when I don't even have a big following. I don't think you realize how much alpha is in these recaps for the price point. You should see the live discussion area there's like 15-20 people who've cleared 7 figure profits from years of me posting these trades.
There's no 1 size fits all answer, I share the flow, the charts, how you all act is on you, all I can do is give ideas of how to place trades for a credit but I'm very honest with you all and tell you what Im doing, at my book size, these smaller names make no sense to me. When I had a couple hundred k, they did.
I'm only up 10.38% for the year, thats cuz I'm down -1.28% on Friday, but I join your stack on May, quick 6.1% QRVO gain, still in FOUR (some) over 15% gain, even for commons you have great picks. WCC is dud for now, I didnt sell at peak.
Yo James, thanks man… Amzn trade 3x since placed … have been playing it through medium and long term leaps. Messaged you a couple times on X, thanking you already 🙌… now with extra cash I am placing a big bet on 🍏… same medium and long term leaps 🤞… tracking those leaps in the database like a hawk everyday 📝
James, you and your family are in my prayers. I lost my mom 10 months and 29 days ago. Your discord community kept me connected to the outside world as I sat with her while she slept the last week of her life. It was the sanity in my insanity. Thanks for everything.
It’s hard man it’s a horrible thing to deal with, I too feel like I escape reality in there, it’s a great place and I’ve made alot of friends along the way.
Thanks for this JB. Was just going through my own Q review. I'm newer here, been tracking and playing some of the daily R/R ideas with good results. But it sounds from this Q review that most of the book is in a very small number of names, which I've seen mentioned in the daily write-ups here and there. Outside of some AMZN common and calls I'm in (ref $169), how might a newer sub like me think about building the larger positions from here? (Also as noted in my emails to you, like many others here I'm thinking about you and your family and wish you the best outcome possible!).
Hey Peter, so I think the best way without me knowing your book size is to go in the discord, the link is in your welcome email, there’s like 800 people in there. There’s channels like questions or current trades where you can bounce those ideas with a lot of others by specifying what exactly you’re working with and hearing from others. There’s really no right answer, when I had a smaller book on here if you read recaps in 2022 I was trading one way and now with a bigger book it’s another way. Your process is going to change to fit what you seek like when I exit this Amazon trade I probably turn exclusively into a put seller because I may just seek to become an income trader generating income with every put sale. It’s a hard question to just answer without knowing a lot more
Hey James, Fantastic recap as always. I sent you a DM also related to the trade performance. About Dad as I said earlier, you all are in my thoughts. Head up and keep moving forward....Take care
Phenomenal quarter JB. Looking back since joining your service, I’m up around 70% YTD - zero complaints. You are a true professional man. Thank you for all the info you provide.
Thank you. Try to stay strong for yourself, your dad, and your family.
Prayers for all of you.
Thanks
Hey James, Before telling you my performance, I wanted to get to what's most important. You can't put a price tag on family and good health and I'm 100% pulling for you and your family all the way. With that being said, since the start of 2023 when I started focusing on the patented Bulltard strategy (which is ironically also around when the market bottomed lol), I've returned just a hair over a double. Needless to say, I'll take that over an 18-month stretch all day every day. Thanks for continuing to show the art of what's possible, and cheers to hopefully a fine 2nd half!
Congrats man. You know what amazes me, you’re a professor, there’s another professor in the discord named BTCapital, he’s a physics professor, but super sharp guy like yourself and he too has gotten the game about as well as anyone in the discord and said he’s gotten so slick with it all he doubled his income this year. I think he’s someone you should bounce ideas with in the discord I know you’re not very active but he is very similar to you in the analytical thought and has his own style that is working very well. Congrats again always happy to hear people doing well
You must be thinking of someone else as I'm not a professor. I'm just a garden variety IT guy. I do see BTCapital's comments in discord all the time and I can see the guy knows his stuff. Thanks again for starting the discord!
I sorry answered this from my phone thought this was Russ bc my email said he commented but when I clicked it took me to your comment t!
James, I know this has been a very difficult time for you, and I apologize in advance for this post since it's somewhat negative.
A non-trivial part of the gains in your account were destroyed on Friday. The graphs comparing your account to the indices were through June 27, not June 28. As you know AMZN was down 2.32% Friday. That must have made a sigificant difference. If you stop at the close on June 24, the results would have been significantly worse.
**On Best Ideas**
I've kept track of the Best Ideas trades since the start of the year. (There were 24 of them. SPOT was an enormous winner. The rest were so-so.) Looking at just the put side, the average gain on all the trades, closed and currently open, is $91. The average margin reqmt is $421. These are computed assuming contracts of size 1 on all trades. To determine a reasonable margin rerquirement, each trade assumes a put spread rather than a naked put. (Some of the best ideas recommend put spreads; some recommend naked puts. As indicated, all contracts are assumed to be put spreads.) If you leave out the SPOT trade, the average gain would have been $60 and the average margin reqmt $387.
On the call side (again, one contract), SPOT was the ony significant winner (up nearly $7,000). Except for one other winner (up $88), all the rest were losers. The average gain to date with/without SPOT was $80/$-245. Since most of the calls are still open, perhaps it's unfair to look at the results to date.
For the trades taken as a whole, including the additional puts needed to cover the cost of the call, the average gain with/without SPOT was $366/$-26. Again, most of the calls are still open.
In short,
o the put side would have been an overall winner with or without SPOT.
o the call side would have been a disaster without SPOT but a winner with SPOT.
o the trades over all (including multiple puts) would have been a winner with SPOT and a slight loss without SPOT.
This confirms a couple things James says in this post.
He says: "I think alot of you have too many positions."
A Frankenstein of positions based on Best Ideas is the very definition of too many positions. I don't look at his Best Ideas each weekend as something I need to run out and jam into my portfolio. I look at everything James says as a window into how he thinks. Evaluating the Best Ideas as a basket feels to me like the equivalent of treating the Best Ideas as portfolio gospel.
He says: "You have to think more about how am I going to move my whole portfolio and the answer is bigger bets on fewer names."
This is the exact opposite of treating the Best Ideas as a basket of names in a portfolio.
Having followed James for about 17 months now, taking in everything he's written, and put it in the context of my own trading and portfolio construction, he's right: bigger bets on fewer names is the way to go. I've seen how my portfolio has grown and changed and where I've won since subscribing to this substack. The fact that I've diversified with a bunch of names has hurt me. I couldn't agree more to just stick with names where you have conviction. For me, the tough part has been getting enough conviction to go for it. As James gives us more examples where he gets conviction, that's going to help me build my own case going forward.
Ya and I mentioned that I wrote it Friday night and results weren’t updated. I didn’t want to get up and write this on Saturday morning
The problem with a best idea is it’s truly not my best idea bc I post so many through out the week and I don’t want to be redundant on Saturday so it’s really more idea with a lot of option flow that I’ve yet to discuss this week if I’m honest
That helps clear things up, but it leaves subscribers like me in a bind. Considering all the names you mention during any given week, I (and probably other subscribers) have a hard time deciding which ones to act on. How would you suggest we filter the trade ideas you mention so that we limit the number of positions in our book? It's fine to say that one should limit our book to a relatively small number of ideas in which we have conviction (that makse a lot of sense), but my conviction depends significantly on your recommendatations.
How would you suggest we decide which of the ideas you mention to act on--and when to dump one position for another? One thing I found very useful about your posting your book before you concentrated into AMZN was that your book gave me a way to see which of the ideas you mention were ones that you thought were worth investing in yourself. It would be very(!) valuable for me if you would do something like that again.
That does not leave you in a bind in any way. This substack is about option flow and idea curation, you get that. I'd say with what you've invested here and your returns to this point, you aren't in a bind in any way. I tell you what I'm in, I obviously cannot come up with 50 weekly trade ideas ontop of the 25 I already put out, that isn't even possible for anyone.
I have no idea how to suggest anything for anyone, I suggest any name you want you sell puts into support as a starting place and buy calls when you feel it right. I really haven't had anyone ever tell me they're in a bind over what I share, if anything I make everyone's lives easier by filtering out their headache of scanning names then looking at charts and then option flow. I know you always have ideas on how to fix things here, but you know as of right now I'm #13 on the finance niche man, that's really hard to do when I don't even have a big following. I don't think you realize how much alpha is in these recaps for the price point. You should see the live discussion area there's like 15-20 people who've cleared 7 figure profits from years of me posting these trades.
There's no 1 size fits all answer, I share the flow, the charts, how you all act is on you, all I can do is give ideas of how to place trades for a credit but I'm very honest with you all and tell you what Im doing, at my book size, these smaller names make no sense to me. When I had a couple hundred k, they did.
James, thank you for a great summary of your trading philosophy. We are with you during this difficult time.
thanks brother
GNRC April flow if it legit, could work now, it is better timing to put the trade rn
I'm only up 10.38% for the year, thats cuz I'm down -1.28% on Friday, but I join your stack on May, quick 6.1% QRVO gain, still in FOUR (some) over 15% gain, even for commons you have great picks. WCC is dud for now, I didnt sell at peak.
Whats the MA and EXPMA u using JB? 8/21 50/200?
Yes and 50-100-200.
Yo James, thanks man… Amzn trade 3x since placed … have been playing it through medium and long term leaps. Messaged you a couple times on X, thanking you already 🙌… now with extra cash I am placing a big bet on 🍏… same medium and long term leaps 🤞… tracking those leaps in the database like a hawk everyday 📝
Nice work man a 3x on size is impressive
Legend🐐excellent advice on moving the needle on portfolio performance thank you
James, you and your family are in my prayers. I lost my mom 10 months and 29 days ago. Your discord community kept me connected to the outside world as I sat with her while she slept the last week of her life. It was the sanity in my insanity. Thanks for everything.
It’s hard man it’s a horrible thing to deal with, I too feel like I escape reality in there, it’s a great place and I’ve made alot of friends along the way.
Thanks for this JB. Was just going through my own Q review. I'm newer here, been tracking and playing some of the daily R/R ideas with good results. But it sounds from this Q review that most of the book is in a very small number of names, which I've seen mentioned in the daily write-ups here and there. Outside of some AMZN common and calls I'm in (ref $169), how might a newer sub like me think about building the larger positions from here? (Also as noted in my emails to you, like many others here I'm thinking about you and your family and wish you the best outcome possible!).
Hey Peter, so I think the best way without me knowing your book size is to go in the discord, the link is in your welcome email, there’s like 800 people in there. There’s channels like questions or current trades where you can bounce those ideas with a lot of others by specifying what exactly you’re working with and hearing from others. There’s really no right answer, when I had a smaller book on here if you read recaps in 2022 I was trading one way and now with a bigger book it’s another way. Your process is going to change to fit what you seek like when I exit this Amazon trade I probably turn exclusively into a put seller because I may just seek to become an income trader generating income with every put sale. It’s a hard question to just answer without knowing a lot more
Hey James, Fantastic recap as always. I sent you a DM also related to the trade performance. About Dad as I said earlier, you all are in my thoughts. Head up and keep moving forward....Take care
Thanks buddy
Phenomenal quarter JB. Looking back since joining your service, I’m up around 70% YTD - zero complaints. You are a true professional man. Thank you for all the info you provide.
Thanks JC, I know you've been here a long time, glad to see you doing well
Thanks JB. You and your family are in my thoughts and prayers