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James Chen's avatar

Almost every stock looks terrible and are below moving averages. Although I have not done as well as you and am still learning, I am making higher lows and outperformed S&P by around 15%. I'm happy with my progress, and look forward to learning more from you.

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James Bulltard's avatar

Nice work James, outperforming by 15% is fantastic. Remember these bad times don’t last forever and when markets turn around it makes life that much easier

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Russ Abbott's avatar

You make a very good case for your approach. Very impressive results! It's a lot of work, but it certainly looks like it's worth it.

One thing I've never understood is why you don't do call spreads when you see something bearish. Since you are so successful(!) with put spreads, why not use call spreads for bearish situations? Then you will have something to do on weeks like this.

BTW, I tend to do short strangles--with much(!) smaller sizes. I use Tastyworks as a broker. They are organized especially for option trading. They are owned by Tastytrade, which does a lot of options research, which they publish openly. Their work, though, is typically not the sort of thing you do. They start with the assumption that at any moment, the market has incorporated all available information, i.e., the efficient market hypothesis (Your work seems to demonstrate that's not true!) If the market is efficient, the way to make money is to sell premium. So they concentrate on how best to do that. Of course, you do that also, but with a very important directional edge!

They have a series called Rising Stars in which they feature people who do well in options. I'm sure they would be interested in featuring you--even though it's not their style . (If it makes money it's worth talking about!) OTOH, perhaps you don't want to publicize your approach too much. Otherwise, too many people would follow it, and it would get too crowded.

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James Bulltard's avatar

Thanks Russ. I don’t like to use call spreads because of the trade goes against you, at least with our spreads I can take the shares and work my way out of it if I want. With call spreads you just have to take the loss and I won’t lie I’m a bit traumatized by the last decade of the constant pumps to save the market which burned many a short call spread that I sold.

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James Fitzgerald's avatar

Glad you had an awesome quarter! Can't wait for Q4 to outperform again! This substack has been amazing with all the ideas you have given us, especially Twitter haha, still holding a large position there. Now that I have shifted my focus from fundamental analysis to charts, I have been making more money and feel more in control. Best of luck!

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James Bulltard's avatar

I’m glad to hear James. I like hearing people improve on their abilities

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