1) Given AMZN is woefully beyond on content, why don’t they make a play for PARS or WBD and get the back catalogs and production staff and create “cost synergies” by right-sizing?
2) Strategic NVDA play was/is obvious given all the CAPEX AMZN, TSLA, GOOG, META, etc discussed on their earnings calls. And it’s not a one-time thing as IT spend depreciates over 3 years so it is a ramp cycle w a tail. I expect NVDA run to continue for next 12-18 months (at least) albeit going from a Boil to a Simmer. If AMD, INTC, Groq others catch up, then TSMC, ASML, KLAC win regardless. Charts will indicate entry and exit points to go big and lighten up.
Amazon would never be allowed to make an acquisition like that. If you remember they were recently denied their purchase of irobot for peanuts. Amazon is an antitrust target for everything. Nvidia is a great company, but I covered Amazon extensively in my day so it’s a name I’m comfortable deploying massive capital into moreover Amazon is the most valuable company in the world, when will they unlock it, that remains to be seen. Nvidia is a few years from a massive headache when all the hyperscalers come for them, the trade worked and all who were in it did well, but Amazon is probably the widest moat on any company via logistics hence the multiple it gets bc you know it will be there in 25 years, we cannot say the same about Nvidia or even meta/google. The logistics moat will never be matched by any company bc of the cost of capital today and the lead Amazon has. Shopify tried and quit in 12 months.
Great write up James, thank you. However, you should really give up on your TSLA hate. TSLA for me has been the biggest money printer man king has ever seen. That thing moves up and down so much, traders on TSLA can make 100x what they can make on AMZN. There is no better stock than TSLA for savvy traders both with PUTs as well as calls.
what does that have to do with it being the most disgusting bloated pig of a company with no reason to be anywhere near its current valuation other than lie after lie by elon musk about products that still don't exist ie robotaxi, semi, roadster, etc. There is nothing I would love more than to see the pigs holding the stock slaughtered bc they've made a mockery of what markets are. You're talking about it being a trading instrument, cool, every stock is a trading instrument, Im talking about it being a joke of an equity led by maybe the greatest charlatan the world has ever seen.
Does it really matter if it is making you an obscene amount of money consistently for so many years? In the end, isn’t the whole time you are spending on Amazon - is it not to make money on it?
im not sure the point you're getting at, all stocks go up and down and are tradeable, Tesla is no different than any other. Where there is a difference is no other company of this size is 60% off its 2021 highs. If that isn't the definition of junk to you then I don't know what you consider Tesla to be. Every stock can make you money, Amazon is a highly profitable company in the early stages of multiple large segments, it doesn't lie to shareholders repeatedly about products that don't exist. It's worth $2T for a reason, I'm not sure why you're comparing it to Tesla which just had negative FCF last q bc its growth is over.
Love it James, great right up. Still believe like you Amazon is a $250-$300 stock in the next 18 months. Discipline and patience is destiny in investing.
its absolutely coming, think of it this way, Amazon is just below $2T in valuation with all these questions and headwinds. What if all this stuff is cleared up and answered?
I'm not remotely worried about Amazon, they have too much going on and have lagged for too long. I believe as long as the cash keeps coming in they will be re-rated higher, the issue now is when they say Capex will be up, we cannot get a read on their FCF
I agree, I like the change of leadership with Gorman coming in at AWS and think Jassy is going to be a great CEO. Hopefully we get some buybacks later this year. Jassy believes Amazon will be the most valuable company in the world by the time he is done with a market cap of $10T and to your point once Amazon fixes some of these issues their FCF is going to explode even further than it already has and once buybacks come into the equation it's game over.
Two thoughts:
1) Given AMZN is woefully beyond on content, why don’t they make a play for PARS or WBD and get the back catalogs and production staff and create “cost synergies” by right-sizing?
2) Strategic NVDA play was/is obvious given all the CAPEX AMZN, TSLA, GOOG, META, etc discussed on their earnings calls. And it’s not a one-time thing as IT spend depreciates over 3 years so it is a ramp cycle w a tail. I expect NVDA run to continue for next 12-18 months (at least) albeit going from a Boil to a Simmer. If AMD, INTC, Groq others catch up, then TSMC, ASML, KLAC win regardless. Charts will indicate entry and exit points to go big and lighten up.
Sorry *PARA not PARS
Amazon would never be allowed to make an acquisition like that. If you remember they were recently denied their purchase of irobot for peanuts. Amazon is an antitrust target for everything. Nvidia is a great company, but I covered Amazon extensively in my day so it’s a name I’m comfortable deploying massive capital into moreover Amazon is the most valuable company in the world, when will they unlock it, that remains to be seen. Nvidia is a few years from a massive headache when all the hyperscalers come for them, the trade worked and all who were in it did well, but Amazon is probably the widest moat on any company via logistics hence the multiple it gets bc you know it will be there in 25 years, we cannot say the same about Nvidia or even meta/google. The logistics moat will never be matched by any company bc of the cost of capital today and the lead Amazon has. Shopify tried and quit in 12 months.
Great write up James, thank you. However, you should really give up on your TSLA hate. TSLA for me has been the biggest money printer man king has ever seen. That thing moves up and down so much, traders on TSLA can make 100x what they can make on AMZN. There is no better stock than TSLA for savvy traders both with PUTs as well as calls.
what does that have to do with it being the most disgusting bloated pig of a company with no reason to be anywhere near its current valuation other than lie after lie by elon musk about products that still don't exist ie robotaxi, semi, roadster, etc. There is nothing I would love more than to see the pigs holding the stock slaughtered bc they've made a mockery of what markets are. You're talking about it being a trading instrument, cool, every stock is a trading instrument, Im talking about it being a joke of an equity led by maybe the greatest charlatan the world has ever seen.
Does it really matter if it is making you an obscene amount of money consistently for so many years? In the end, isn’t the whole time you are spending on Amazon - is it not to make money on it?
im not sure the point you're getting at, all stocks go up and down and are tradeable, Tesla is no different than any other. Where there is a difference is no other company of this size is 60% off its 2021 highs. If that isn't the definition of junk to you then I don't know what you consider Tesla to be. Every stock can make you money, Amazon is a highly profitable company in the early stages of multiple large segments, it doesn't lie to shareholders repeatedly about products that don't exist. It's worth $2T for a reason, I'm not sure why you're comparing it to Tesla which just had negative FCF last q bc its growth is over.
Love it James, great right up. Still believe like you Amazon is a $250-$300 stock in the next 18 months. Discipline and patience is destiny in investing.
its absolutely coming, think of it this way, Amazon is just below $2T in valuation with all these questions and headwinds. What if all this stuff is cleared up and answered?
I'm not remotely worried about Amazon, they have too much going on and have lagged for too long. I believe as long as the cash keeps coming in they will be re-rated higher, the issue now is when they say Capex will be up, we cannot get a read on their FCF
I agree, I like the change of leadership with Gorman coming in at AWS and think Jassy is going to be a great CEO. Hopefully we get some buybacks later this year. Jassy believes Amazon will be the most valuable company in the world by the time he is done with a market cap of $10T and to your point once Amazon fixes some of these issues their FCF is going to explode even further than it already has and once buybacks come into the equation it's game over.