11/1 Recap

Today is the last options expiry before the election. We wrapped up the week with 5 megacap reports and only 2, Amazon and Google had a positive reaction. NFP this morning was a disaster, only 12,000 new jobs added, they blamed the hurricanes, they blamed the strikes, whatever it is, private payrolls were deeply negative and that isn’t really reassuring of how good the economy is. Of course stocks ripped on that because it means the fed likely has to cut rates harder sooner. What a world, bad economy, good for stocks. The SPY made a pretty insignificant move today, you see the inside day today just below the 21 ema. Still in a downtrend, now the 8 ema is crossing over the 21 ema for a bearish crossover, not good. For the uptrend to resume we need to get back over those averages ASAP or they’re going to begin sloping down and it can get messy. Today honestly feels more like a dead cat bounce because Amazon had a strong print and lifted so many names but we remain below the key short term averages at the moment.

Speaking of Amazon, I think their earnings were very good, I remain in my June 2026 leaps I bought back in January as my largest position by far and that trade is going well, there’s nothing to say really other than in January I will have a long term gain and may consider taking some off, but there seems to be no reason to as they’re firing on all cylinders at this moment and who knows where they’ll be by June 2026 but my bet is materially higher.

Apple on the otherhand, I think it is fair to say misled investors dramatically this year with their Apple Intelligence presentation in the summer which led to countless upside call buys we saw, I even followed in some leaps in June, and then the rollout of the actual product didn’t even have the features they promised. They were so desperate to prove they weren’t a distant last place in the AI race that they showed off these features that weren’t ready. That was very Tesla like and not what Apple does historically. The market has punished it since as sales have been weak because of it. I do believe Tim Cook when he said yesterday he has features bettering his life that we haven’t seen yet, but for investors, he really misled them this year and that sort of dishonesty is just not cool. I remain in my Apple leaps but pretty unhappy with their performance. The good news in the report from Apple was they did reduce share count by 400m year over year which is huge but we’ll see how the rest of the year goes I may use them for tax harvesting purposes just a very botched rollout of what could have been the first consumer facing AI product.

Recent Trades

I wanted to discuss LEU because it is up almost 30% in 8 days since I wrote it up here but I will discuss it monday, today we had a weekly trade that is expiring at 100%.

NVDA - Last weekend’s best idea here was a short 5 day trade because I wanted to avoid the earnings volatility and it went perfectly. NVDA got all the pump today from the Amazon conference call where they guided up on capex with most going to NVDA and it is over 136 now. These short put spreads will expire worthless today for a nice 9% return in 5 sessions. Well done if you played along.

Today’s Unusual Options Activity

Here is today’s link to the database it will be open until monday and the opening bell. The rest of today’s trades will be added by the afternoon. I assume it is because of the election next week but the last 2 days have seen incredibly low option volume.I think/hope we get back to normal next week post election, just big players probably laying low till it is over, so like yesterday I just highlighted 3.